Multi-criteria analysis for rapid vulnerability assessment of marine species to climate change

Abstract The accelerating pace of climate-induced stress to global ecosystems threatens the sustainable management and conservation biodiversity. To effectively respond, researchers managers require rapid vulnerability assessment tools that can be readily implemented using diverse existing knowledge sources. Here we demonstrate application multi-criteria analysis (MCA) for this purpose a group coastal-pelagic fishes from south-eastern Australia as case-study. We show MCA has capacity formally structure sources, ranging peer-reviewed information (which informed 29.2% criteria among models) expert 22.6% models), quantify sensitivity species biophysical conditions. By integrating models with spatial climate data over historical future periods, rapidly assessing marine change. Spatial analyses revealed an apparent trend case-study towards increasing or stable projected change throughout northern (i.e. equatorward) extent study domain emergence refugia southern poleward) regions. Results projections method were consistent past redistribution suitable habitat off eastern under demonstrating value change, highlight opportunity develop user-friendly software infrastructures integrated projection support interdisciplinary method.